2025 Predictions
A quick thank you for reading this newsletter. I’ve spent the last few years cutting back on much of my content production, but this newsletter is one thing I truly enjoy doing. My goal is to try to have a positive impact on the world through OrangeLetter, so my hope is that some part of this is helpful to you.
Well, you made it. You made it through the holidays and family gatherings and did your absolute best not to talk politics. It was challenging, right?
So we head with trepidation into 2025. I foresee a number of things happening. Here are a few.
Bluesky Promises
Bluesky, the Twitter/X and Threads competitor, saw significant growth in 2024 as more and more individuals were looking for a non-Elon Musk owned replacement for their text-based social media needs.
The growth was impressive. Bluesky boasts more than 25 million users, with over five million joining within two weeks after the U.S. presidential election.
What I like about Bluesky is its LACK of algorithms. Apparently, it doesn’t use any. If you want to see certain news, you’ll need to follow people and make your own feed. You won’t be shown content based on your history or content patterns (unlike every other platform).
So good on them. Unfortunately, that also inhibits growth. Most people are lazy and won’t take the time to curate their own feed.
I predict Bluesky will be amazing for a small group of people, but will never come close to the user base of Twitter/X.
Speaking of X
For a couple hundred million dollars in support for Donald Trump, Elon Musk bought himself massive influence on the future direction of the United States. Twitter/X will surely benefit from this.
In 2025, I see X growing revenue for the first time since Elon took over. I also anticipate that TRUTH social (DJT’s social media app) will fold into X sometime during the year.
Researchers Identify Major Mental Health Issue
The average American spends five hours per day on their smartphones. About half of that is on social media apps.
Half of all teenagers spend at least four hours on social media PER DAY. More and more studies are confirming this type of usage negatively affects sleep, attention, academic performance, physical fitness, and contributes to social isolation.
Depression and suicidal tendencies are growing. There is not much good that comes from this kind of behavior.
My prediction? In 2025, some research outfit names a DISEASE after this. This named disease starts to gain momentum throughout the year. Children and adults will be diagnosed with this named disease. Groups will be created, like AA or Gamblers Anonymous, to support people affected with this condition.
Ultimately, into the next presidential term (2028), we will start to see major federal legislation around smartphone usage for children.
Online Gambling Has a Coming Out Moment
You can’t watch a sporting event on television today without seeing a sports betting promotion or advertisement. The sports betting business is booming.
After the federal ban on sports betting was overturned in 2018, we now have legalized sports gambling in 39 states. DraftKings revenue increased almost 40 percent in 2024, while FanDual now boasts 3.2 million average monthly players. In total, 40 million Americans will be gambling on live sports in 2025 (15 percent of the adult population).
NOTE: If you’d like to hear a good backstory on how this happened, check out Michael Lewis’s podcast here.
Long story short, sports betting is literally destroying people’s lives. The problem is, unlike drug use or alcohol abuse, we can’t see it happening.
But we can see the difference between states that legalized it and those that do not. In states that have legalized sports gambling, bankruptcies are significantly up, suicides are up, depression is up, divorce is up.
All these things have been covered by the media, but I believe in 2025 we see a series of horrible incidents that are linked to sports gambling, especially on the smartphone. This leads to more awareness and “maybe” possible social shunning of having these kinds of apps on your phone.
This might be just wishful thinking (not the horrible incidents but the shunning).
Something has to be done. Just look at the devastation in Greece and Australia.
The Year of Retro Ads
In 2025 we will see at least five major brands begin using their OLD advertisements on television, streaming and social media. Think of the “How Many Licks?” commercial for Tootsie Pops, and then expand that to major brands like Nike and Procter & Gamble.
For some reason, retro is all the rage in 2025, as we begin to desperately long for anything from the past.
Bitcoin to Double
I talked about this in the previous issue of OrangeLetter, and also on a recent Content Inc. podcast. The stars have aligned for major institutions and government entities to back the rise of Bitcoin. It’s just a matter of time now.
What are your 2025 predictions? Shoot me a response and maybe I’ll include them in the next issue.
Track Your Time in 2025
I’ve had a chance over the past few weeks to talk to many people about their plans for 2025. In most cases, people are feeling overwhelmed in a chaotic world. They are having a hard time grasping meaning with so much going on around them.
Do you feel this way? I know I do sometimes.
One of my friends has wanted to start a business his entire life. Let’s call him Bob (not his real name). He’s been talking about a particular business idea for over 20 years. Every time Bob brings it up, I tell him he should do it. Every time Bob responds that he can’t. The kids this. Or the family that. Or the bills this. Or his current job that.
Listening to Bob talk is an experiment in itself. Here is Bob in a nutshell.
– He’s always busy (and will tell you so).
– He doesn’t know how he can get everything done in the allotted time.
– He feels he “has” to do things that he doesn’t want to do.
– He makes excuses.
It’s difficult for me to watch. Bob has so much talent. I want to take him and fix him. I’ve tried to say things here or there, but he doesn’t take advice well. But simply put, all of Bob’s issues are self-inflicted.
If Bob would be open to it, this would be my plan.
Take a Week and Track Your Time
Bob complains that he’s always busy. I know for sure that this is his mindset and he’s not that busy.
To fix this, I would track what he does for a full week, 24 hours a day.
How much does Bob sleep? How much time does Bob spend on email? How much television does Bob watch? How much time does Bob spend scrolling through social media?
Without even trying I could find Bob an extra four to six hours a day in time (just by removing the TV and social media scrolling).
BTW, there are plenty of apps that can track your time.
Analyze and Choose
Like Bob, so many people I know feel they “have to” do certain things. This is usually not true. We either make the choice consciously or make the choice by just letting it happen.
Once the list is complete, we need to create what an average day looks like. It might be easier for you to just look at a work day and leave the weekends alone.
It might look like this:
– Sleep: 7 hours
– Getting ready for work: 1 hour
– Commuting to and from work: 1 hour
– Work: 7 hours
– Breaks and lunch at work: 2 hours
– Time on phone/social media/email: 3 hours
– Making/having dinner: 1.5 hours
– Watching Netflix or TV: 3 hours
You get the point.
Now rate each one with a) Must do, b) Probably must do, or c) Don’t need.
In the above example, I can identify six hours right away that Bob doesn’t need.
Those six hours per day, five days a week add up to over 1,500 hours in a year. You can accomplish a lot with that kind of time. This could be the time Bob needs to start his business. Or maybe he can work to have a better relationship with his wife and kids.
The point is, Bob has the power to change his life. He just doesn’t realize it.
Want to be better in 2025? Take back your life by choosing instead of defaulting.